It is well-known in psychology that beliefs significantly impact our reality. Just imagine changing a vital belief and its impact on behaviour and thoughts. For instance, if you trusted CNN, imagine how this would affect us, or if you believed advertising had our best interests at heart.
John is addressing some of the critical questions that transcend the questions of science.
One of the worst ideas is EVs. Total damage to the environment! Radical insanity on the part of the Biden Administration with its connection to the CCP; more kickbacks bringing in EVs from China???
Abu Ali ibn al-Haytham, a natural philosopher of 11th-century Iraq, founded the scientific method in the East. He wrote "The seeker after truth does not place his faith in any mere consensus, however venerable and widespread. Instead, he subjects what has learned of it to inquiry, inspection, and investigation. The road to truth is long and hard, but that is the road we must follow."
The Greek philosopher Anaximander was more concise: "How do we distinguish what is from what is not?"
One comment: The climate hypothesis HAS been subjected to test. Here is how:
Climate Models are formal mathematical statements of the Theory of Climate.
The hypothesis test comes when climate models are run using initial and boundary conditions of a past time
Results of the model are compared to reality.
So far, the climate models have failed miserably, and all on the side of over-estimating temperature as a function of CO2
Of note: No climate models account for the albedo effects caused by interaction of background gamma radiation interacting with solar radiation, nor do they account for upper tropospheric mixing. The former is probably the main driver of climate given the current CO2 concentration, and its current saturation levels with respect to greenhouse effect.
Mike: TY for the clarification (which I made in an edit): I meant to say that the Climate hypothesis as not been successfully subjected to each of the two main Science processes.
The radiative transfer equation with scattering is an impossible monster, impossible to solve analytically and infinitely (this is literal, not a metaphor) more difficult to solve numerically than without scattering. Anybody who claims to understand clouds, especially in a meaningfully detailed quantitative way, is a delusional liar and charlatan. Prof. Richard Lindzen (MIT) has developed some good broad-brush approximations for stratospheric cirrus clouds -- which are not included in the IPCC models. He identifies them clearly as approximations.
As you say, scientific inquiry is a method. It’s not exclusively reserved for “scientists” but rather is properly insisting on full context and purging of contradictions in all that we think about. What can be found in many people that hold scientific certifications is they specialize narrowly and lack broad general knowledge.
And one of my guiding principles is, infallibility is not a human attribute.
The most concise way to think about beliefs is that a "belief" is the willingness to accept something as true, when you don't actually know if it is true. This is the central problem with many religions today. They establish a pattern of thought where people ignore the difference between what is actually known and a belief.
Daniel: We are all looking for Truth, so you definition is basically right. However, the Belief matter is WAY beyond religion, so I don't want to get bogged down by that small aspect.
Excellent essay. I agree that the children are being taught 'conformity'. And conformity is a seduction of young minds in that it is the easy way and, if you will, the lazy way of 'thinking'. It is my working hypothesis that in the digital age with all its 'improvements' (read: removing thinking and doing of so many tasks from our daily lives) our minds are growing and atrophying in areas that we have not studied or anticipated. Who remembers phone numbers and addresses? How many students leave school 'vaccinated' against Algebra and Geometry and more? Who knows how to drive a 'stick shift'? Cursive writing, grammar and spelling proficiency all seem things of the past. And AI has the potential to reduce the innate ability of minds to create and innovate. (Atrophy again) etc. etc.
Funny how, with work before pleasure, work becomes the pleasure itself. Also--re worth doing, worth doing right--husband claims I have turned that into, if it's worth doing, it's worth doing to excess (e.g.: measuring before cutting--I do the measuring a minimum of 3x, more often 4.
It is well-known in psychology that beliefs significantly impact our reality. Just imagine changing a vital belief and its impact on behaviour and thoughts. For instance, if you trusted CNN, imagine how this would affect us, or if you believed advertising had our best interests at heart.
John is addressing some of the critical questions that transcend the questions of science.
David: Thank you. Beliefs are so common (and so subconscious) that most people have little understanding of their profound importance.
I think this is outstanding, in today's edition. Multi-kudos!
Rich
Rich: Much appreciated.
Excellent presentation, thank you.
Dan: TY for your support. Please pass this commentary on to other open-minded parties.
One of the worst ideas is EVs. Total damage to the environment! Radical insanity on the part of the Biden Administration with its connection to the CCP; more kickbacks bringing in EVs from China???
Barbara: Yes, EVs are a bad idea...
Abu Ali ibn al-Haytham, a natural philosopher of 11th-century Iraq, founded the scientific method in the East. He wrote "The seeker after truth does not place his faith in any mere consensus, however venerable and widespread. Instead, he subjects what has learned of it to inquiry, inspection, and investigation. The road to truth is long and hard, but that is the road we must follow."
The Greek philosopher Anaximander was more concise: "How do we distinguish what is from what is not?"
Read Gregory Wrightstone's "Inconvenient Facts."
I wrote this on my facebook page several months ago:
The purpose of the educational establishment:
1. Pre-school: Prepare for Kindergarten
2. Kindergarten: Prepare for elementary school
3. Elementary school: Prepare for middle school
4. Middle school: Prepare for high school
5. High school: Prepare for college
6. College: Prepare for grad school -- or NFL
7. Grad school: Prepare to be a professor
Why is the entire educational establishment aimed at only about 0.01% of the population? And why does it utterly fail for the other 99.99%?
"Good judgement comes from experience. Experience comes from bad judgement."
-- Mark Twain
My older brother had quite an influence on me as I was growing up. He told me "Character is doing the right thing when nobody is watching."
One comment: The climate hypothesis HAS been subjected to test. Here is how:
Climate Models are formal mathematical statements of the Theory of Climate.
The hypothesis test comes when climate models are run using initial and boundary conditions of a past time
Results of the model are compared to reality.
So far, the climate models have failed miserably, and all on the side of over-estimating temperature as a function of CO2
Of note: No climate models account for the albedo effects caused by interaction of background gamma radiation interacting with solar radiation, nor do they account for upper tropospheric mixing. The former is probably the main driver of climate given the current CO2 concentration, and its current saturation levels with respect to greenhouse effect.
Hopefully you have seen both.
Mike: TY for the clarification (which I made in an edit): I meant to say that the Climate hypothesis as not been successfully subjected to each of the two main Science processes.
The radiative transfer equation with scattering is an impossible monster, impossible to solve analytically and infinitely (this is literal, not a metaphor) more difficult to solve numerically than without scattering. Anybody who claims to understand clouds, especially in a meaningfully detailed quantitative way, is a delusional liar and charlatan. Prof. Richard Lindzen (MIT) has developed some good broad-brush approximations for stratospheric cirrus clouds -- which are not included in the IPCC models. He identifies them clearly as approximations.
Nice post. Glad I subscribed this week…
Frank: Thank you. Check the Archives (<https://criticallythinking.substack.com/archive>) and you should see some other interesting commentaries
As you say, scientific inquiry is a method. It’s not exclusively reserved for “scientists” but rather is properly insisting on full context and purging of contradictions in all that we think about. What can be found in many people that hold scientific certifications is they specialize narrowly and lack broad general knowledge.
And one of my guiding principles is, infallibility is not a human attribute.
Garret: Indeed the two Scientific Processes are of universal use.
The most concise way to think about beliefs is that a "belief" is the willingness to accept something as true, when you don't actually know if it is true. This is the central problem with many religions today. They establish a pattern of thought where people ignore the difference between what is actually known and a belief.
Daniel: We are all looking for Truth, so you definition is basically right. However, the Belief matter is WAY beyond religion, so I don't want to get bogged down by that small aspect.
Excellent essay. I agree that the children are being taught 'conformity'. And conformity is a seduction of young minds in that it is the easy way and, if you will, the lazy way of 'thinking'. It is my working hypothesis that in the digital age with all its 'improvements' (read: removing thinking and doing of so many tasks from our daily lives) our minds are growing and atrophying in areas that we have not studied or anticipated. Who remembers phone numbers and addresses? How many students leave school 'vaccinated' against Algebra and Geometry and more? Who knows how to drive a 'stick shift'? Cursive writing, grammar and spelling proficiency all seem things of the past. And AI has the potential to reduce the innate ability of minds to create and innovate. (Atrophy again) etc. etc.
Keep the Faith , John. And don't stop writing.
Chris: Well said — I think you've got it!
Funny how, with work before pleasure, work becomes the pleasure itself. Also--re worth doing, worth doing right--husband claims I have turned that into, if it's worth doing, it's worth doing to excess (e.g.: measuring before cutting--I do the measuring a minimum of 3x, more often 4.
VVV: Good, but I think that the excess part is a bit excessive.
Well, so does husband. But I make far fewer mistakes, which means saving a bunch of money not wasted on having to purchase more product.
My name is Mary Toomajian
Email is matoomaji@gmail .com
This post is right on and could not be said any better!
Would like to follow!🙏❤️🤗
Mary: Thank you. I'll also subscribe you to my twice-a-month Newsletter — which is a unique and invaluable free resource.