15 Comments

"An expert is a man fifty miles from home with a briefcase."

-- Will Rogers

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VS: We say that, but somehow we don't connect that when we hear someone like Dr. Fauci speaking...

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I LOVE this post and story - what an excellent example of the importance of using critical thinking across the board!!!!!

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Dr. Rodgers: Thank you for your kind words.

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Another "beauty", John!

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Russ. TY. Check out the new PS...

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"I love sports!". A common phrase. It can mean "I play sports every chance I get" (rare) or "I love to watch others play sports" (99%)! The latter is actually destructive as It means hours parked before a screen slugging beer! I could go on for hours regarding the negative aspects of the industry built around this, but I won't. I will say: "There is something seriously wrong in any society that delights in making multi-milionaires of grown adults who excell at playing children's games!". At this point someone usually

Insists that they aren't children's games. Ok, name one that didn't originate on a child's playground!

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Tom: I can;td speak for others, but I enjoy playing golf. It is relaxing, a change of pace, intellectually stimulating, pjhysically challenging, and a social opportunity.

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I would place golf in the first category for the people who actually play,. One rarely sees an overweight golfer. My main concern is with the American addiction to television and now cell phones. I have never owned a television (I am 74),. I live in Phoenix. I'm in the process of replacing the engine in a 1961 chevy one ton duelly. I came in for a minute to cool off. I don't have reefer in my shop. The Boulder Dam took five years to construct at the height of the depression (24hrs a day). I once calculated the man hours and compared it to current daily hours in the US watching TV. I found that 11 Boulder damscould be built every day!

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Congrats on a fantastic win. But, given the “Rodney Dangerfield” status of BC, could you at least spell the name of the storied QB correctly? Douglas Richard Flutie (“ie”).

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Kimball: Oops! I'll blame that on the computer spell-check. Thanks it is fixed.

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any true expert will show the sources used to come to an expert opinion, so that others can go over the same sources and hopefully arrive at a similar opinion (variation of Popper's falsification principle).

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Mary-Lou: the example I'm using here is that experts predicted how different NCAA football teams would perform — and they were entirely wrong. Yes, they would have some data (e.g., prior year performance), but (like with climate, energy, etc.) they do not have ENOUGH data or the RIGHT data to make a meaningful projection.

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The degree of uncertainty in the facts which will be considered in reaching any conclusion during the course of any analysis will be one of the most important factors in the probability that the conclusion reached is the correct one. Until the new coach arrived all facts were based on the previous year. Once a new head coach appeared and who has a strong history of rebuilding football programs into successful teams, the analysis and the resulting conclusion will become mere speculation. All discussion therefore will tend to be wishful and unreliable thinking.

Ps Congratulations on BC's victory. As they say in the Investor ads: "Past performance is no guarantee of current success."

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yep: too many uncontrolled variables (however, I come from Anthropology/social sciences, which is not a 'science' but rather having an eye for processes, relations and networks).

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