More Misleading Statistics

Critical Thinkers will not be fooled!

One of the most monitored US statistic — and one frequently used for political gain — is the Unemployment Rate. It sounds simple enough (and actually should be) but when bureaucrats and politicians got their hands on it, it’s merely a shadow of itself.

Here is a Mainstream Media article on the most recent Employment Report (just released), plus the Whitehouse spin on it…

Believe it or not (as this superb article explains), there are now SIX different US unemployment rates! Here are the latest (2023) government data for all six. The popularly referred to rates are 3.6% (U-3: unemployed) and 6.9% (U-6: out of work).

However, there is another large fly in the ointment: the unemployment rates (by-and-large) do not count illegal immigrants. When that number was low, it was ignored, as it was considered to be just statistical noise. Since 2020, that is no longer the case, as the current data says some six (6) million new illegal immigrants are in the US, just from the Southern border!

A reasonable estimate is that 4± million of these are people who would be normally considered as part of the labor pool. The approximate size of the US citizen labor pool is 165 million. So the 3.6% (U-3) means that 6± million US citizens are unemployed.

Let’s estimate that 1± million (out of the 4± million employable) of the new illegal aliens are gainfully employed. That leaves 3± million who would be considered unemployed. None of those are considered in the government statistics… Put another way, the U-3 statistic goes from 6 to 9 million (i.e., a 50% increase: 3.6%—> 5.4%). The U-6 statistic would likewise go from 6.9% to 8.7% (i.e., an increase of 1.8%)

The point here is that these immigration corrections are rather sizable, so if the government is claiming to be doing its best to keep citizens accurately informed, (e.g., about our economy) they should include this information in their calculations. Maybe I missed it, but I was unable to find that…

In this vein, I can’t resist plagiarizing this prior Abbott and Costello spoof:

COSTELLO: I want to talk about the unemployment rate in America.
ABBOTT: Good Subject. It's 3.6%. 

COSTELLO: That many people are out of work? 
ABBOTT: No, that's 6.9%. 

COSTELLO: You just said 3.6%. 
ABBOTT: 3.6% are unemployed. 

COSTELLO: Right, 3.6% out of work. 
ABBOTT: No, that's 6.9%. 

COSTELLO: Okay, so it's 6.9% unemployed.
ABBOTT: No, that's 3.6%. 

COSTELLO: WAIT A MINUTE. Is it 3.6% or 6.9%?
ABBOTT: 3.6% are unemployed. 6.9% are out of work. 

COSTELLO: But if you are out of work, you are unemployed. 
ABBOTT: No, Biden said you can't count those "Out of Work" as the unemployed. You have to be looking for work to be unemployed. 

COSTELLO: BUT THEY ARE OUT OF WORK!!! 
ABBOTT: No, you miss his point. 

COSTELLO: What point?
ABBOTT: Someone who isn’t actively looking for work can't be counted with those who look for work. It wouldn't be fair. 

COSTELLO: It wouldn’t be fair to whom? 
ABBOTT: The unemployed. 

COSTELLO: But they are ALL out of work. 
ABBOTT: No, the Unemployed are actively looking for work. Those who are Out of Work gave up looking. If you give up, you are no longer in the ranks of the Unemployed. 

COSTELLO: So if you're off the Unemployment roles that would count as less Unemployment? 
ABBOTT: Yes, unemployment would go down.

COSTELLO: The unemployment rate goes down because you don't look for work?
ABBOTT: Obviously. That's how the current administration gets it to 3.6%. Otherwise it would be 6.9%. Our government doesn't want you to read about 6.9% unemployment. 

COSTELLO: Why don’t they include illegal immigrants in the employment data?
ABBOTT: Because that would make unemployment rates much worse!

COSTELLO: That would be tough on those running for reelection. 
ABBOTT: Duh!

COSTELLO: So that means there are three ways to bring down the unemployment number? 
ABBOTT: Yes. 

COSTELLO: Unemployment can go down if someone gets a job?
ABBOTT: Correct. 

COSTELLO: And unemployment goes down if citizens stop looking for a job? 
ABBOTT: Bingo.

COSTELLO: And unemployment also goes down if the government doesn’t fully include employment data about illegal immigrants? 
ABBOTT: You’re a genius. 

COSTELLO: So citizens who support the current administration can help bring unemployment down, by stopping to look for work. 
ABBOTT: Now you're thinking like the Economy Czar. 

COSTELLO: I don't even know what the hell I just said!  ABBOTT: Now you're thinking like some of our current leaders!!!

PS — This relevant article just came out today: Doing statistics can be difficult but understanding them can be fairly simple…

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Here are other materials by this scientist that you might find interesting:

My Substack Commentaries for 2023 (arranged by topic)

Check out the chronological Archives of my entire Critical Thinking substack.

WiseEnergy.org: discusses the Science (or lack thereof) behind our energy options.

C19Science.info: covers the lack of genuine Science behind our COVID-19 policies.

Election-Integrity.info: multiple major reports on the election integrity issue.

Media Balance Newsletter: a free, twice-a-month newsletter that covers what the mainstream media does not do, on issues from COVID to climate, elections to education, renewables to religion, etc. Here are the Newsletter’s 2023 Archives. Please send me an email to get your free copy. When emailing me, please make sure to include your full name and the state where you live. (Of course, you can cancel the Media Balance Newsletter at any time - but why would you?

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