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Dr Mike Yeadon's avatar

One item which doesn’t feature here is “Inadequate diagnostics”: using a method, PCR, which is categorically unsuitable for making a clinical diagnosis, according to its Nobel prize winning inventor, Dr Kary Mullis. The details of the process leading to the result are shrouded in secrecy, under the guise of protecting manufacturers proprietary information. The test was never formally calibrated under the correct conditions, samples taken from individuals who definitely had, or definitively did not have, this alleged infection. Thus, disputes about the false positive rate have never been resolved. Many people do not know that it’s not only theoretically possible to have a 100% false positive rate (all the positive outcomes are false) but this has actually happened. So those who wave their arms & claim that “the FPR is less than 1%” are just ignorant.

I have reason to believe that this has been arranged so that the operational false positive rate is 100%. In discussions with multiple stakeholders & especially doctors, it’s clear that most have no idea how an absolute FPR & prevalence play into the operational FPR. However, if an absolute FPR was 1% & prevalence was just 0.1%, then 90% of positive outcomes are false. This assumes the people operating the procedures associated with the test are expert & avoid errors like submicroscopic cross contamination. True experts know this can only be minimised, not eliminated, so they build in evaluation steps as part of the method itself. This was never done, anywhere, even when the method was being initially established.

It’s important to appreciate that, no matter how skilled, error aware & honest an operator is, the foundation stones of the method depend upon the honesty of those designing the method for use in clinical diagnostics & especially in the manufacture of the reagents (materials used in the test). If someone had undetectable deception at the heart of their intentions, it would look pretty much like the design, manufacture & deployment of this PCR method.

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Nancy in NC's avatar

If one is not skeptical about any and all major institutions in this country, they are either woefully ignorant or have chosen to be a gullible fool.

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